Sales in China rebounded 32.8% month over month in February, although the recovery is far from complete, with the full PEV sales potential capped by weakness in the broader car market, which was down 19.8% year over year in the first two months. Passenger PEV sales across top markets rose in February as recovery is underway from the January slump. We expect the lithium carbonate CIF Asia price to decline 20.1% year over year in 2023 and the cobalt price to correct 42.4% over the same period. Steep discounts in China's ICE vehicles could nonetheless pressure the PEV sales share in the short term and further moderate the pace of the country's PEV sales recovery.Ī declining price environment - from vehicles to batteries and for lithium and cobalt - provides greater opportunities for low-cost, integrated producers to gain market share while being much more challenging for others. Global car makers appear to be more readily offering discounts on PEVs in China than in other markets. Since the beginning of March, rampant price cuts to ICE vehicles in China have spilled over to PEVs. Cobalt metal prices stopped falling, with the LME price stabilizing and prices in China fluctuating around a near-term price floor. Demand weakness accelerated the decline in China's battery-grade lithium price, dropping 29.0% month-to-March 27. The impact of subsidy reductions still lingers across major PEV markets, including China, Germany and Norway. – We expect a subdued cobalt metal price throughout the year, from weak demand at present, and that supply additions will offset the impact of more noticeable demand improvements in the second half. – We now expect a steeper decline in the lithium carbonate CIF Asia price - a 20.1% drop year over year in 2023 compared with 15.9% in our previous report - as more drastic discounts on ICE vehicles could slow the PEV sales recovery in China. China's cobalt metal price rose 4.5% March 1–13 before pulling back 5.9% by March 27 on a lack of support for a sustained price increase. – The cobalt metal price decline paused in March, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) cobalt cash price stabilizing between $15.31 per pound and $15.32/lb in March-to-date. Lithium refineries reliant on spodumene purchased from the spot market are currently loss-making. – Product inventory at lithium refineries is rising on weak demand, accentuated by a lack of restocking by downstream consumers in the battery supply chain. Prices have dropped 52.4% since peaking Nov. – China's battery-grade lithium carbonate price decline accelerated, dropping 29.0% month-to-March 27 to 270,000 yuan per metric ton ($34,773/t excluding value-added tax).
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